Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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future investments in the power sector

It would require € 264 billion in investment for the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately € 6.4 billion per year or € 132 billion more than in the Reference scenario (€ 132 billion). Under the Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional power plants add up to almost 57% while approximately 43% change to “would be invested in renewable energy and CHP plants until 2050.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, Poland would shift almost 90% of the entire investment towards renewables and CHP. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on gas power plants.

Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of € 98 billion up to 2050, or € 2.5 billion per year. The total fuel cost savings therefore would cover 74% of the total additional investments compared to the Reference scenario.These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on the national economy.