Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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future costs of electricity generation

Figure 5.6 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is possible while keeping costs per kWh of electricity generation similar to the reference scenario until 2030.The difference between the two scenarios will be less than 0.2 €ct/kWh up to 2020. Because of high prices for conventional fuels and the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, from 2040 on electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be 3.6 €ct/kWh below those in the Reference version.

Under the Reference scenario, on the other hand, unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s € 10 billion per year to more than € 36 billion in 2050, compared to € 34 billion in the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Figure 5.6 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with Poland’s CO2 reduction targets, but also helps to stabilise energy costs and relieve the economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are more than 7% lower than in the Reference scenario.