Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply market under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market.This will compensate for the decision not to rely on nuclear reactors and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 88% of the electricity produced in Poland will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind and PV – will contribute 54% of electricity generation.The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 23% already by 2020 and 52% by 2030.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 48 GW in 2030 and 119 GW by 2050.

Table 5.1 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in Poland over time. Up to 2020 wind will remain the main contributor of the growing market. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass and photovoltaics.The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 41% by 2030 and 75% by 2050, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity e.g. from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.