Energy Blue Print
Scenarios for a future energy supply

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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energy demand by sector

Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Poland’s final energy demand.These are shown in Figure 5.1 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total final energy demand increases by 11% from the current 2,718 PJ/a to 3,017 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final energy demand decreases by 32% compared to current consumption and it is expected to reach 1,855 PJ/a by 2050.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, due to economic growth, increasing living standards and electrification of the transport sector, electricity demand is expected to increase in the industry sector, as well as in the residential, service and transport sectors. Total electricity demand will rise from 119 TWh/a to 214 TWh/a by the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 46 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic appliances using the best available technology in all demand sectors.

Efficiency gains in the heating and cooling sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, demand for heating and cooling is expected to increase until 2015 and drop significantly afterwards (see Figure 5.4). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 395 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive climatisation’ for new buildings, as well as highly efficient air conditioning systems, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.