Energy Blue Print

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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A key target in Italy is to introduce incentives for people to drive smaller cars. In addition, it is vital to shift transport use to efficient modes like rail, light rail and buses, especially in the expanding large metropolitan areas.Together with rising prices for fossil fuels, these changes reduce the huge growth in car sales projected under the Reference scenario. Due to higher efficiency, energy demand from the transport sector is expected to decrease in the Energy [R]evolution scenario by 44% from today levels around 1,612 PJ/a to 900 PJ/a in 2050. Despite GDP growth and higher living standards, in 2050 efficiency measures and mode shifts will save 37% compared to the Reference scenario (1,435 PJ/a).

Highly efficient propulsion technology with hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric power trains will bring large efficiency gains. By 2030, electricity will provide 9% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the share will be 44%.This leads to an overall renewable energy share in the transport sector of 26.8% in 2030 and 75.2% in 2050.