Energy Blue Print

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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heating supply

Today, renewables meet 10% of Italy’s energy demand for heating and cooling, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development in particular for renewable cooling technologies (e.g. solar cooling) and renewable process heat production. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 45% of Italy’s total heat demand in 2030 and 88% in 2050.


  • Energy efficiency measures help to reduce the currently growing energy demand for heating and cooling by 25% in 2050 (relative to the reference scenario), in spite of improving living standards and economic growth.
  • In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass, geothermal energy (incl. heat pumps) as well as electricity from renewable sources are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel-fired systems.
  • A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions.

Table 5.2 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating and cooling in Italy over time. Up to 2030 biomass will remain the main contributor of the growing market share. After 2030, the continuing growth of solar collectors (also for solar cooling) and a growing share of geothermal and environmental heat will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels.