Energy Blue Print

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply sector is charaterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity.This will compensate for the reduction of fossils power production in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, with coal power plants phased out by 2030, and some reduced gas-fired power plants required for grid stabilization. By 2050, 92% of the electricity produced in Italy will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, PV and concentrated solar power (CSP) – will contribute 73% to the total electricity generation. Already by 2020 the share of renewable electricity production will be 42% and 63% by 2030.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 109 GW in 2030 and 211 GW by 2050.Table 5.1 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in Italy over time.

Up to 2020 wind and PV will become the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind and PV will be complemented by electricity from biomass, concentrated solar power and geothermal energy.The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 34% by 2030 and 56% by 2050, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.