Energy Blue Print
Italy

The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

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energy demand by sector

Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Italy’s final energy demand.These are shown in Figure 5.1 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total final energy demand decreases by 3% from the current 5,033 PJ/a to 4,859 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, fina lenergy demand decreases by 37% compared to current consumption and it is expected to reach 3,146 PJ/a by 2050.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, due to economic growth, increasing living standards and electrification of the transport sector, electricity demand is expected to increase slightly in the industry sector and strongly in the transport sector, while it is expected to decrease slightly in the residential and service sectors (see Figure 5.2).Total electricity demand will rise from 299 TWh/a to 389 TWh/a by the year 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity consumption in the transport sector is expected to grow by far stronger than in the Reference scenario. Also for heat production in industry and in the residential and service sectors, you find an increase of electricity consumption in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.Thus fossil fuels are substituted by electricity that is mainly generated from renewable sources. Nevertheless, total electricity consumption is very similar as in the reference scenario, as efficiency measures for non-heat applications in the industrial, residential and service sectors save about 155 TWh/a in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors.

Efficiency gains in the heating and cooling sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, demand for heating and cooling is expected to remain constant until 2015 and to decrease continuously afterwards (see Figure 5.4). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 523 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy- related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive climatisation’ for new buildings, as well as highly efficient air conditioning systems, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.