development of global heat supply demand by sector
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the energy [r]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced (see Figure 19). Compared to the reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 94,000 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.
Development of renewables in the heat supply sector raises different issues.Today, renewables provide 26% of primary energy demand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass.The lack of district heating networks is a severe structural barrier to the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. Past experience shows that it is easier to implement effective support instruments in the grid-connected electricity sector than in the heat market, with its multitude of different actors. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development.