The future development pathways for China’s primary energy demand are shown in Figure 6.106 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total primary energy demand will increase by a factor of 2.5 from the current 73,000 PJ/a to 185,020 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, primary energy demand increases up to 2030 by 60% and decreases to a level of 99,150 PJ/a in 2050.

Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately (see Figure 6.107). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to demand of around 7,500 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 3,160 TWh/a.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are large as well. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced (see Figure 6.108). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalent to 10,300 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050.

In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario that energy demand will increase considerably, from 5,100 PJ/a in 2005 to 17,300 PJ/a by 2050. However this still saves 50% compared to the Reference Scenario.