The future development pathways for Europe’s energy demand are shown in Figure 6.40 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total primary energy demand in OECD Europe increases by more than 10% from the current 81,500 PJ/a to 90,300 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, demand decreases by 40% compared to current consumption, reaching 48,900 PJ/a by the end of the scenario period. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand in all three sectors is expected to decrease after 2015 (see Figure 6.41). Because of the growing use of electric vehicles, however, electricity use for transport increases to 3,520 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 1,460 TWh/a. This reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology. Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger.

Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced (see Figure 6.42). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalent to 7,350 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and new ‘passive houses’, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.

In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario that energy demand will decrease by almost half to 8700 PJ/a by 2050, saving 58% compared to the Reference Scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.