Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Latin America’s energy demand. These are shown in Figure 6.29 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total primary energy demand more than doubles from the current 21,140 PJ/a to 52,300 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, a smaller 54% increase on current consumption is expected by 2050, reaching 32,500 PJ/a.

Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately, with households and services the main source of growing consumption. This is due to wider access to energy services in developing countries (see Figure 6.30). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 2,150 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 660 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices. Employment of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for air-conditioning.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced (see Figure 6.31). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalent to 2,400 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario that energy demand will increase by a fifth to 6,100 PJ/a by 2050, saving 50% compared to the Reference Scenario.