global

The development of future global energy demand is determined by three key factors:

• Population development: the number of people consuming energy or using energy services.
• Economic development, for which Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most commonly used indicator. In general, an increase in GDP triggers an increase in energy demand.
• Energy intensity: how much energy is required to produce a unit of GDP.

Both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the two, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario.

projection of energy intensity

An increase in economic activity and a growing population does not necessarily have to result in an equivalent increase in energy demand. There is still a large potential for exploiting energy efficiency measures. Under the Reference Scenario, we assume that energy intensity will be reduced by 1.25% on average per year, leading to a reduction in final energy demand per unit of GDP of about 56% between 2005 and 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, it is assumed that active policy and technical support for energy efficiency measures will lead to an even higher reduction in energy intensity of almost 73%.