Energy Blue Print
Archive 2008

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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regional breakdown of CO2 emissions in 2050

With effective efficiency standards OECD countries can reduce their per capita energy consumption significantly while developing countries could slow down their massive increase in energy demand. At the same time renewable energy sources can increase there share in the energy mix to over 50 % globally. In some regions, the renewable energy share will be well above 80%, while economic growth is still maintained over the entire scenario period.

With this shift, annual per capita CO2 emissions will fall from their current level of about 3.6 tonnes to 1.15 tonnes in 2050. OECD countries will be able to reduce their CO2 emissions by about 80%. The Energy [R]evolution Scenario for the USA shows that it is possible to reduce per capita CO2 emissions from 19 tonnes now to 3 tonnes by 2050. For the EU-27 countries, per capita emissions will fall from 8 to just under 2 tonnes per capita. Developing countries such as the Philippines could even keep per capita emissions at their current level of about 1 tonne of CO2 until 2050, while maintaining economic growth. A combination of efficiency standards and renewable energy development proves to be the most cost effective way to cut CO2 emissions and increase security of supply by reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports.

Under the global Energy [R]evolution Scenario, China and India will emit almost half of the remaining CO2 emissions in 2050, while all OECD countries together will have a share of about 22%.