Under the Reference Scenario, investment in renewable electricitygeneration will be $491 billion. This compares to $1,956 billion in theEnergy [R]evolution Scenario. How investment is divided between thedifferent renewable power generation technologies depends on theirlevel of technical development and regionally available resources.
Technologies such as wind power, which in many regions is alreadycost competitive with existing power plants, will take a largerinvestment volume and a bigger market share. The market volumeattributed to different technologies also depends on local resourcesand policy frameworks within the U.S. states. Figure 4.15 providesan overview of the investment required for each technology.
For solar photovoltaic, the primary market will remain in southernstates and sunny states like California for years to come, but shouldsoon expand to other U.S. states. Because solar photovoltaic energy isa highly modular and decentralized technology that can be used almostanywhere, its market will eventually spread across the entire U.S. Solarphotovoltaic is expected to reach grid parity (generation costs on thesame level as consumer electricity prices) by 2012 to 2015.
Concentrated solar power systems, on the other hand, can only beoperated in U.S. states with more than 2000 hours of directsunlight. The main investment in this technology will therefore takeplace in California, Arizona and New Mexico.
The main development of the wind industry will take placeespecially in coastal areas, but also areas further inland such asTexas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. Offshore wind technology willtake a larger share from around 2015 onwards. The main offshorewind development will take place around the Atlantic coast. Bioenergy power plants will be distributed across the U.S., as there ispotential almost everywhere for biomass and/or biogas(cogeneration) power plants.
Under the Reference Scenario, the primary market expansion ofnew fossil fuel power plants will be gas-fired power plants, followedby coal power plants. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, theoverall investment in fossil fuel power plants up to 2030 will be$468 billion, a figure significantly lower than the ReferenceScenario’s $823 billion.
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