energy [r]evolution: the blueprint for a healthy climate
In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council posed a simple but daring series of questions.
First, is it possible, using currently available technologies, to cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the levels needed to prevent the worst effects of global warming?Second, can we do it while maintaining strong economic growth? Third, since nuclear power presents a number of intractable problems,7 can we also phase out all nuclear power by 2050? And, finally, can we do it here in Canada?
The answer, from some of the world’s top energy experts at the German Aerospace Center, is a resounding yes on all counts. Every step of the way, we made conservative assumptions to ensure that the Energy [R]evolution scenario would not just add up on paper but also work in the real world. We used numbers from the International Energy Agency (IEA) to project economic and population growth.8The Energy [R]evolution scenario assumes that only currently available, off-the-shelf technology will be utilized between now and 2050. Unproven technologies like “carbon-free coal” were omitted. We assumed that no current energy infrastructure—from power plants to home appliances—will be retired prematurely. Even with these conservative assumptions, the Energy [R]evolution scenario demonstrates how Canada can convert to a cleanenergy economy and help stop global warming.
By following the Energy [R]evolution blueprint, Canada can cut carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector roughly 80% by 2050. We can solve global warming, but we must start now. global warming and security of supply Spurred by recent volatility in the price of oil, the issue of security of supply is now at the top of the energy policy agenda. While the price of oil may go up and down, the long-term trend is clear. Prices will inevitably increase, because supplies of all fossil fuels—oil, gas and coal—are becoming scarcer and more expensive to produce. The days of cheap oil and gas are coming to an end. Uranium, the fuel for nuclear power, is also a finite resource. By contrast, global reserves of renewable energy are large enough to provide about six times more power than the world currently consumes—forever. Renewable energy technologies vary widely in their technical and economic maturity, but there is a range of increasingly attractive sources. These include wind, biomass, photovoltaic, solar thermal, geothermal, ocean and hydroelectric power. Their common feature is that they produce little or no greenhouse gases, and rely on virtually inexhaustible natural sources for their “fuel.” Some of these technologies are already competitive. Their economics will further improve as they develop technically, as the price of fossil fuels continues to rise and as their saving of carbon dioxide emissions is given a monetary value.
At the same time there is enormous potential for reducing our consumption of energy, while providing the same level of energy services. This study details a series of energy efficiency measures which together can substantially reduce demand in industry, homes, business and services. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, primary energy demand decreases 50% between 2005 and 2050.the energy [r]evolution: a sustainable energy future for canada
The Canada Energy [R]evolution scenario reduces carbon dioxide emissions from the Canadian energy sector by 40% below 1990 levels by 2020 and roughly 80% by 2050. This, in concert with additional greenhouse gas savings in other sectors, is necessary to keep the increase in global average temperature from the preindustrial level as far below 2°C as possible.
To achieve these reduction targets, the scenario is characterized by significant efforts to fully exploit the large potential for energy efficiency. At the same time, all cost-effective renewable energy sources are accessed for both heat and electricity generation, as well as the production of sustainable biofuels.
In 2005, renewable energy accounted for 15% of Canada’s primary energy demand. Hydro power for electricity production and biomass, mainly used for heating, are the main renewable energy sources. The share of renewable energies for electricity generation is 59.6%. The contribution of renewables to primary energy demand for heat supply is around 12%. About 75% of the Canadian primary energy supply currently comes from fossil fuels.
The Canada Energy [R]evolution scenario describes a development pathway which turns the present situation into a sustainable energy supply for Canada:
• Energy efficiency will reduce primary energy demand by 50% by 2050. This dramatic reduction in primary energy demand is a crucial prerequisite for increasing the share of renewable energy in the overall energy supply system, to compensate for the phase-out of nuclear energy, and for reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.
• The increased use of combined heat and power generation (CHP) improves the overall efficiency of the supply system. District heating networks are a key precondition for achieving a high share of decentralized CHP. Fossil fuels for CHP are increasingly being replacedby biomass and geothermal energy. District heating networks are a key precondition for achieving a high share of decentralized CHP. Improved conservation measures and the production of heat directly from renewable sources will cap the expansion of CHP in the long term.
• The electricity sector takes the lead in renewable energy utilization. By 2020, over 80% of electricity will be produced from renewable energy sources, and over 90% by 2050.
• The share of renewables in energy generation will continue to grow, reaching 22% by 2020 and more than 64% in 2050. In particular, biomass, solar collectors and geothermal energy will replace conventional systems for direct heating and cooling.
• Before sustainable biofuels are introduced in the transport sector, efficiency will have to be greatly increased. As biomass is mainly limited to stationary applications, the production of biofuels is limited by the availability of biomass. Electric vehicles will play an increasingly important role from 2020 onwards.
• By 2020 about 25% of primary energy demand will be supplied by renewable energy and that will rise to about 58% by 2050.
To achieve an economically attractive growth of renewable energy
sources, a balanced and timely mobilization of all renewable energy
technologies is of great importance. The balanced growth of all
renewable energy technologies will require policy support in the form
of feed-in tariff programs, which pay premium prices for renewable
energy, reflecting its environmental benefits.
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