In order to get a better understanding of what different technologies can deliver, it is necessary to examine more closely how future production capacities can be achieved from the current baseline. The wind industry, for example, has a current annual production capacity of about 25,000 MW. If this output were not expanded, total capacity would reach 650 GW by the year 2050.This includes the need for “repowering” of older wind turbines after20 years. But according to this scenario the share of wind electricity in global production by 2050 would need to grow fromtoday’s 1% to 4.5% under the Reference scenario and 6.5% under the Energy [R]evolution pathway.
A relatively modest expansion from today’s 25 GW production capacity, however, to about 80 GW by 2020 and 100 GW in 2040would lead to a total installed capacity of 1,800 GW in 2050,providing between 12% and 18% of world electricity demand.
The tables below provide an overview of current generation levels,the capacities required under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and industry projections of a more advanced market growth. The good news is that the scenario does not even come close to the limit of the renewable industries’ own projections. However, the scenario assumes that at the same time strong energy efficiency measures are taken in order to save resources and develop a more cost optimised energy supply.
global: jobs results
In 2020, there are 2 million more jobs overall in the power sector,under the Energy [R]evolution scenario than there would be under the Reference scenario. In both scenarios there would be fewer jobs in coal between 2010 and 2020. Under the [R]evolution scenario the jobs losses in coal would be greater, however, there is far stronger growth in the renewable energy and energy efficiency sectors, resulting in more jobs, overall.
Figure 4.2 shows that by 2020, more than half of direct jobs in the [R]evolution scenario are in renewable energy, even though renewable energy accounts for only 36% of electricity generation.In the Reference scenario renewable energy accounts for 28% of power sector jobs and 22% of electricity generation. This reflects the fact that the renewable sector has greater “labour intensity”– or people per unit of power produced.
In 2010 coal is the largest employer in both scenarios, making up nearly half of power sector employment. In both scenarios, coal sector employment drops by 2020, to 34% in the Reference and to just 21% in the [R]evolution scenario. But this reduction is more than compensated for by the strong growth in the renewable sector.
In the [R]evolution scenario, wind power employment grows the most, and has the highest number of direct jobs in both 2020 and2030. Renewable CHP (mostly biomass) has the next highest employment by 2030, closely followed by solar PV.
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