To work out how many jobs can be either lost or generated under various future energy scenarios requires assumptions for several parameters regarding the energy market.
fossil fuel costs The Energy [R]evolution scenarios assumed a price development path for fossil fuels in which the price of oil reaches $120/bbl by 2030 and $140/bbl in 2050. This takes into account growing global demand and the dramatic price increases in mid-2008 and recent price volatility. Gas prices are assumed to increase to $20-25/ GJ by 2050 because the supply of natural gas is limited by the availability of pipeline infrastructure and there is no world market price for natural gas.
emissions costs The Energy [R]evolution scenarios assume that aCO2 emissions trading system is established in all world regions in the long term and that CO2 costs $10 per tonne in 2010, rising to$50 per tonne in 2050. Additional CO2 costs are applied in Kyoto Protocol Non-Annex B (developing) countries only after 2020. It should be noted that projections of emissions costs are even more uncertain than energy prices, and available studies span a broad range of future CO2 cost estimates.
power plant investment costs The Energy [R]evolution scenarios assume that costs for fossil fuel plant development will continue to drop in the future, due to efficiency gains and reduced investment costs.Generation costs and the costs of emissions are expected to rise; the assumptions used in calculations are shown in Table 2.3. Carbon capture and storage costs were not included in the scenario development, even though these are likely to add significant costs to new fossil fuel plants.The current best estimates for infrastructure, transport, storage and monitoring vary too widely based on plant parameters and location to make any useful contribution to the modelling.
renewable energy technology costs Renewable energies have different levels of maturity and the costs assumptions are provided inTable 2.4. More details of the development of each technology isprovided in Section 4.
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