employment effects

• There are 1 million power sector jobs in the [R]evolution scenario in the Transition Economies in 2010, and 1.1 million in the Reference scenario.
• Jobs fall sharply in the Reference case after 2010, while growing in the [R]evolution scenario. By 2020, there are 1.1 million jobs in the[R]evolution scenario, 200,000 more than in the Reference scenario.
• Job numbers continue to fall in the Reference scenario between2020 and 2030, and strong growth continues in the [R]evolution technologies. By 2030 there are 1.2 million jobs in the[R]evolution compared to 0.9 million in the Reference scenario.

Figure 3.30 shows strong growth in the [R]evolution scenario contrasts with continuing job losses in the Reference scenario. It is assumed that only 30% of renewable energy manufacturing occurs within the region at 2010, increasing to 70% by 2030. However, the Transition economies (mainly Russia) export a high percentage of the inter-regionally traded gas, which results in high employment numbers in the Reference scenario, and significant numbers in the [R]evolution.

Over time, the biggest changes are in coal employment, which drops sharply in both scenarios. In the [R]evolution scenario coal employment almost disappears, to be replaced by biomass as the largest employment sector.